What Thoughts Might Reside In The Head Of Peter Lawwell At A Time Like This?

[TicTacToe]

Now that Celtic have cleared the seemingly insurmountable points hurdle and charge headway towards an SPL title, the thing on everyones agenda now is how can the board of Celtic follow though on this and make investment that almost assures a long period of domestic domination for Celtic.

What is needed?

Nothing I suppose, I mean, what is clear is that during this month Rangers will need to sell players to the tune of £10m plus to be in a position to make some form of contributory settlement relative to their HMRC commitment, the results of which will come through during Q1 2012. This hole will be filled with either loans deals of free transfers. That weakens them yet further. Celtic on the other hand have no need to sell other than to offload any deadwood, they currently can boast the better of the two squads and all the further demise of Rangers does is enhance that.

But, imagine what a spend of say £6m or £7m would do?

So what is it that is stopping him from turning the screw? Well I'm not in the know as far as Celtic is concerned but I can imagine the thought process that he will work with before making any commitment, so here it is, from me for what it is worth.

a. A £6m spend will be £3m now with the other £3m to be paid probably next year. If that buys 3 players there will be signing on fees and at least £2.4m of wages to be met. So in the round a net spend in 2012 of £6m with at least £3m of committed spend for 2013 along with an ongoing increase to the wage bill of £2.4m. So he needs to work out where he can eek out an additional £6m revenue for 2012 and how he gets £5.4m for 2013 and at least £2.4m revenue to cover extra salary for each remaining year of the deal. But that is not all...................

b. The 2012/13 CL is one Scottish club who have to go through two qualifying rounds knowing that in the final round if they make it, they will have to face a team from either Spain, Germany, Italy or England. So you are very much looking at Europa League revenue again. A much more weakened SPL will see the crowds at CP dwindle, so I will take a guess and say gate receipts will be down 10% overall. I will guess that Celtic have £40m to £45m in gate receipts for the season under normal circumstances. That will be light at least £4m in 2012, with possibly further marginal drops in 2013 and ongoing as the domestic scene in Scotland just completely goes into meltdown.

c. In spite of revenue drops, there will be certain contractual obligations that involve increased payments to players. I'd guess the annual wage bill at CP is £20m, so lets imagine that a further £1m per year increase can be expected.

So the accounting hole is now £11m this year, £11.4m in 2013 and £9.4m in 2014; the co-efficient in Scotland is now in complete free fall so it is fair to say the CL football is now more of a lottery than ever, so we have to think right outside of that box.

Your challenge as entrepreneurs and as fans keen to see the death of your rivals is where does this extra revenue come from? Remember TV revenue sucks, so thats a no no. But you quickly need to find £11m now (oh and I forgot, don't roll in player sales as this will be paying off any transfer rollover fees on past purchases that I have not considered so we will say that the two net off to save confusion), because if you don't find £11m, this becomes debt.....debt in a world of reducing revenue. In three years, without the money to service this spend that could be over £30m in debt and all for one spend of £6m..............Scary?

Every number above is anecdotal, but the principal accounting behaviour is more or less okay.

This is by no means a defence of Peter Lawwell, but it will give an insight into what goes through his head everytime he reads that he needs to spend more. Right now in Scottish football, every penny is a prisoner.

You cannot think about investment right now without considering the long term effect - ask David Murray.

[Unregistered]

Celtic should explore the option of a British league to get more revenue, particularly out of TV.

[Unregistered]

Point b....even uf it is only one scottish team playing 2 qualifiers, they would be champions and therefore be in 'champions' qualifiers and not face teams from England Italy etc as they would be on 'non champions' side of qualifiers. Scottish champions would only play other champions...malmo etc...

[TicTacToe]

Celtic should explore the option of a British league to get more revenue, particularly out of TV.

The big unanswered question?

If Celtic could get Sky or ESPN to confirm that their inclusion within a wider league, be it the EPL or a newly formed British League would in itself secure an increase in TV revenue then people would certainly listen. The issue now is that with the Sky case lost on the showing of EPL matches through foreign channels and with streaming of games on the rise, it is inconceivable that any TV company is thinking that they will have to pay that much more when the deal renewal comes up, indeed they will fancy a significant drop in the fee is due. So right away its a position of weakness unlesss Celtic can prove that their inclusion mitigates the loss to a point. For the top 7 or 8 teams, this is worth pursuing, for the rest its turkey's voting for Xmas.

[Unregistered]

Celtic should explore the option of a British league to get more revenue, particularly out of TV.

Formation of a British league would require at the very least, the participation of the EPL. But they've already made it very clear on a number of occasions that they don't want either of the two big Glasgow teams, so they certainly wouldn't want to dilute their share of their TV cash by sharing it with the entire Scottish set-up.

I don't imagine English Championship teams would be very keen on forming a British league either, as this would create at least two further hurdles for them to clear to reach the giddy heights of playing in the EPL, or whatever would replace it if a British league came into existence.

Additionally, I believe FIFA currently bars teams from one country from playing in another country's league. (Although Swansea was 'grandfathered' in.)

PL would therefore have to be creative to raise cash -- possibly by selling or renting out naming rights to our stadium? When we win the league this year, maybe we could approach Champion spark plugs and re-name our stadium to "Champions Stadium"? 8-)

[Elchappy]

Good piece. A lot more intelligent than some of the, "we need to spend no matter the cost and it's cause PL is a w*nker if we don't". Anecdotal numbers or not this gives a true reflection of why we will inevitably sell our best players

[kevmarmc]

As a start try generating cash by opening stores, originally with short leases, in Boston, Chicago, Philly, New York ................ you know the places with large Irish communities.
Ideally the time to do this would have been about Thanksgiving and the lead up to Christmas.
Try approaching the Boston Celtics to see if we could have a joint merchandising deal. The same with Notre Dame.
To ignore this merchandising opportunity is bordering on the criminal.
Sure there is an initial outlay, and in calandar terms, we may have missed the boat this year but lets dip our toe in the water and see what happens.

[TicTacToe]

Point b....even uf it is only one scottish team playing 2 qualifiers, they would be champions and therefore be in 'champions' qualifiers and not face teams from England Italy etc as they would be on 'non champions' side of qualifiers. Scottish champions would only play other champions...malmo etc...I could be wrong but I think our co efficient is such that we would be exposed to all the big nations. I think the year after we get one year with two teams again and one gets straight to the final hurdle. I could be wrong, but nonetheless itcis fair to say the prognosis is none to good whatever.

[Unregistered]

Celtic should explore the option of a British league to get more revenue, particularly out of TV. but the rest of britain doesnt want us as we are anti british, so can you honestly blame them, i have spoke to man utd, liverpool, arsenal ect fans and they said they dont want us because of our hatred towards them, so can you balme them

[Marky Bee]

The Great Whyte Knight' realising the error of his ways scuppers the sinking ship into the Clyde and 'comes aboard' the good ship Celic, opens the war chest and blows all European wannabes ( Barca, Man U., Milan etc.) into oblivion to reclaim our rightful title of Kings Of Europe, The World and Glesga.
Hail hail bhoys I.A.N.L.

[Unregistered]

I could be wrong but I think our co efficient is such that we would be exposed to all the big nations. I think the year after we get one year with two teams again and one gets straight to the final hurdle. I could be wrong, but nonetheless itcis fair to say the prognosis is none to good whatever.

Champions only ever play champions in qualifers.
Dropping down co efficient only means less Scottish qualifers and more rounds...as things stand just now anyway.

[TicTacToe]

but the rest of britain doesnt want us as we are anti british, so can you honestly blame them, i have spoke to man utd, liverpool, arsenal ect fans and they said they dont want us because of our hatred towards them, so can you balme them

I don't buy that. I've lived in England for 30 years, I'm not a Celtic fan so have no need to cost up to them, but being proud of your heritage is hardly being anti British. I know of not one person who considers them anti British.

[TicTacToe]

Champions only ever play champions in qualifers.
Dropping down co efficient only means less Scottish qualifers and more rounds...as things stand just now anyway.

Thanks for the info. It's contrary to what I was told, but I do get it wrong sometimes.

[Unregistered]

Thing is this British League is exactly what UEFA and FIFA want ... you see over there is the only country where residents with a passport are divided up ... England Scotland Wales Northern Ireland ... may have existed as separate entities in the olden days ... but now there is no Scottish Passport no English Passport etc
And it has been argued by many a "foreign" country that there are 4 votes given to one country instead of 1 ... which if the shoe was on the other foot would obviously not go down too well !!

[Unregistered]

As a start try generating cash by opening stores, originally with short leases, in Boston, Chicago, Philly, New York ................ you know the places with large Irish communities.
Ideally the time to do this would have been about Thanksgiving and the lead up to Christmas.
Try approaching the Boston Celtics to see if we could have a joint merchandising deal. The same with Notre Dame.
To ignore this merchandising opportunity is bordering on the criminal.
Sure there is an initial outlay, and in calandar terms, we may have missed the boat this year but lets dip our toe in the water and see what happens.

Mate, I just came back from Boston and as a Celtic fan, spent over $200 on Boston Celtics merchandise. Your suggestions re: Boston Celtics, Notre Dame - and I'd unquestionably throw Boston Red Sox into the mix as well are well founded. Also, in New York, every souvenir shop has the standard ' I heart NY' stuff, but they also have 'I shamrock NY' in glorious green and white...

Food for thought there my man...

[scotscelt]

The route to the Champions League is far easier than is often quoted. There will be no big team from Germany England , France Italy etc.
The splitting of national champions and and teams who simply finished high enough in stronger leagues ensures this.
The SPL winner should not have a team from a leauge any higher than mid 20's. As they would be the 3rd ranked side in the final round draw.

[jockybhoy]

Thanks for the article - you have obviously put a bit of thought into it and it does show the true cost of £1 (or £3m) today...

BTW I'm living in London for 23 years - the thoughts of the "unregistered" poster are waaaay wide of the mark, even the Chelski lad in the coffee shop is talking about the Huddle and the atmosphere at games, what a run we're on, catching up on the other team (though he did bust me when we were behind!) etc. Not a single person down here has asked about the recent songs rancour in Scotland - you should hear what Spurs and Arsenal sing to each other! Everyone still remembers the UEFA final in Manchester though!

Whether we play "Champions" of other minor leagues or Big Gun runners-up is pretty immaterial, Celtic and other Scottish teams) have shown time and again, the lower the hurdle, the lower we jump... We can no longer "guarantee" a windfall (can you ever?) of Champs League money and we have to cut our cloth accordingly.

Personally I hope we ship out a few of our "squad" level players - for loan or even for buttons - to free up some of the wage bill. Hopefully that will offset against cost of the "future" wages you suggest.

Didn't Man Utd do a tie-in with the NY Yankees baseball some years back? No obvious link other than 2 of the biggest brands in sport - anyone know how that worked out? Given the growth of web shopping, I would imagine anyone with a passing interest in Celtic knows how to buy online - that's how I get my US sports stuff...

[BeeKay]

I know if looking for new kit for 5 a sides or anything else that I would always look for green and white if not buying celtic, hence could explore link ups with otehr clubs in similar colours. Also the link up particularly Boston Celtics and Notre Dame sounds like good idea, I too purchased some Celtics stuff when in America and regularly send stuff over to relatives in Canada from our shops as they find it very difficult to get over there. I think that the TV thing is dead. As someone else said the recent court ruling means even EPLs next deal is likely to be lower never mind any "British" or North Atlantic claptrap that we would be involved in.

[tommy67]

Re another point that I would like to make about Kayal
His injury in last weeks Old firm game was mainly due to the sickening tackle made by that long streak of humanity that goes under the name of McCulloch. When is it time to take action against this "thug " the look on his face as he went into the tackle with Kayal was one of pure hatred his main intention was to seriously maim or injure him and as we are hearing today that "thug " may have got his wish. There was no enquiry into his tackle and as soon as Kayal went down he was signalling to the bench that the thug had done him,

[Unregistered]

The link-up with the Boston teams and Notre Dame would be a great idea - I actually attended Notre Dame and go back for games each year, and even as much as we have improved in marketing since signing on with Nike, we could certainly learn something from the ND marketing machine. The inherent problem with these link-ups (especially with Notre Dame) is, ironically, the deal with Nike and the potential conflict between sponsorships. For example, Notre Dame has a lucrative contract with Adidas - because of that, Notre Dame are unlikely to be able to promote Nike products and vice versa with Celtic promoting the Adidas brand.

[mick f]

100% agree but this board don't seem to like looking into the future by backing their managers.
For qualification for the champions league we would avoid playing teams from the big 5 countries as we'd be in the champiopns route. There's still good teams but better to play a team from Poland, Croatia, Czech republic & Belgium. Still a tough task but we are on our way up & i'm sure no-one would want to be drawn against us.

Didn't notice there was a page 2 someone has pointed out what i said oops.

[tonybhoy]

Is the heating on in my driveway

Sent from my GT-I9100 using Tapatalk

[TicTacToe]

Is the heating on in my driveway

Sent from my GT-I9100 using Tapatalk

Tsk, Tsk, Tsk.............the forum is the place for the quips, this was a serious article...............:;-D:

[Delbhoy]

I could be wrong but I think our co efficient is such that we would be exposed to all the big nations. I think the year after we get one year with two teams again and one gets straight to the final hurdle. I could be wrong, but nonetheless itcis fair to say the prognosis is none to good whatever.

TTT We wouldn't play a team from any of the top nations the hardest draw we could get in terms of rankings are the Belgian or Romanian champions.

[TicTacToe]

TTT We wouldn't play a team from any of the top nations the hardest draw we could get in terms of rankings are the Belgian or Romanian champions.

Thanks for that Del, in your haste to get to the end and point out my error (as that has been your rais en d'etre this last 36 hours) you missed post 13 I think where I get corrected and thank the chap.

[Delbhoy]

No problem TTT I had noticed that and was actually trying to help you out by clarifying the point a little in terms of the teams we could face. My raison d'être in the last 36 hours has been to seek clarity on the subject of the whole two contract scenario. However yours seems increasingly to be to try and paint me in a bad light or suggest I have some sort of personal agenda against you. Indeed going back to revisit one of my posts from 5 days ago speaks volume on your intentions.....

[Unregistered]

Well, everything else aside, sitting on top of the league, in two cups, a stronger squad and a happier support. Whatever Mr Lawwell is saving up for will be worth it.